ANC losing support an indication of what may happen in 2024 – political analysts

It failed to make such an impressive showing in key metros, including Gauteng’s jewel trio of Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni

The ANC’s poor showing in the local government elections which saw its national electoral support drop  below 50% for the first time could be a precursor to what may unfold in the next national general polls.

This is a view shared by analysts on Wednesday as the ANC results hovered around 46% with about 80% of the ballots counted, signalling a possible end to its majority rule in some parts of the country.

The party sneaked a 50-plus percentage in one metro namely Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape, where it was leading after amassing a 60% of the votes with less than 20% of the ballots still to be tallied and captured.

It failed to make such an impressive showing in key metros, including Gauteng’s jewel trio of Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni where it lost its majority five years ago. The party will now need to find willing coalition partners in the trio if it were to retain power and share power in Free State’s Mangaung metro and  the coastal metros of Nelson Mandela Bay and eThekwini.

The DA successfully retained the City of Cape Town, amassing 61% of the vote by late on Wednesday afternoon.

Political analyst Aubrey Mashiqi said he foresees that the sentiments expressed by the electorate during these municipal elections by either staying home or voting for other parties hold until the next national elections in 2024.

“What I have been saying is that the ANC is likely to fall below 50% by 2029, my thinking now is that this may happen as early as the 2024 elections, which means the coalition negotiations we are going to see after these elections are a precursor of the negotiations that may happen at national level in 2024,” Mashiqi said.

He said the local government elections have given a clear indication of the trend and pattern going into the next polls as the electorate is unhappy with the failures of the ANC.

“I think with these elections we can legitimately say it has signalled what may happen in 2024,” Mashiqi said.

Political analyst Sandile Swana said the “consistent trend of the ANC losing support” will still continue into the next polls as the party is extremely divided and cannot even agree on decisions such as who will be its councillor candidate in some instances.

“They [ANC] are not at 48 or 49, they are at 46%, which means if the trend has to be looked at they’re headed towards 40% and below,” Swana said.

He said he expected to see the ANC hover below 40% in support during the 2024 general elections.

“By 2029 they’ll be in their 30s, very low 30s because when you look at the internal dynamics of the ANC and their dismal failure to self-correct and their impunity in corruption and general incompetence, their prospects of recovery are slim,” Swana said.

ANC treasurer general Paul Mashatile expressed concern over the party’s dip below 50% and admitted that it meant it would be difficult to get a majority support in future elections.

“It means it is going to be very tough going forward… we went into this election with many problems, including electricity and many service delivery issues.

“We need to say now, let’s address these issues before 2024 because if we don’t it means the picture will be like this,” Mashatile said.

Major political parties held briefings at the IEC’s Results Operation Centre (ROC) in Pretoria, addressing questions on coalitions, including the possibility of working with the ANC.

DA’s John Steenhuisen only ruled out the EFF as the only party they were not willing to get into bed with, while ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba said they will consult those who’ve voted for the party on who do they want his party to form coalitions with.

By late afternoon on Wednesday, the IEC indicated that around 90% of the awaited results were already in the system awaiting scanning and auditing. 

–-SowetoLive

About Post Author