Mkhize might derail Ramaphosa’s bid for second term

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President Cyril Ramaphosa’s bid for a second term as ANC president is gaining momentum, with key pieces falling into place at the party’s regional and provincial conference

However, both his supporters and potential contenders are cautioning that it is still way too early to make a call.

At least three provinces have been identified as crucial for any presidential contender to consolidate, namely KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, which rank as the three biggest provinces, respectively, in terms of ANC membership numbers.

Ramaphosa’s most serious challenger is former health minister Zweli Mkhize, whose ground forces have been hard at work in the party’s regions, while his senior lieutenants have been negotiating alliances with other senior leaders who have an eye on top-six positions. His team has been working on the so-called radical economic transformation forces, who are determined to make Ramaphosa a one-term president.

Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu’s presidential ambitions are seen as fanciful by ANC insiders, and she will most likely have to make a deal for a top-six position.

Deputy President David Mabuza’s supporters seem to be keeping their powder dry and it is not clear what position he intends to contest. A mysterious figure lurking in the shadows is treasurer-general Paul Mashatile, who is currently running Luthuli House in the absence of corruption-accused secretary-general Ace Magashule and his unwell deputy, Jessie Duarte. Mashatile has not shown support for any camp, fuelling speculation that he may be interested in the top job himself.

The president’s campaigners are feeling bullish following the re-election of Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane as provincial ANC chairperson earlier this week.

Limpopo had already offered a psychological boost when Premier Stanley Mathabatha endorsed Ramaphosa during the party’s January 8 anniversary celebration – but others in the province distanced themselves from his remarks and said he was only expressing his personal opinion.

In KwaZulu-Natal, eThekwini – the party’s biggest region in the country – has been won by Ramaphosa’s ANC rivals, who also count at least eight other regions as in the bag.

“It is still too early to call it, but the processes so far have been such that they consolidate his position as number one,” said a Ramaphosa lobbyist, adding that, with the election outcomes from the Eastern Cape, “I don’t see any other potential contestant entering the race”.I don’t see any other candidate contesting him. He or she will just be committing political suicide. People’s ambitions have been curtailed. They thought if Mabuyane lost, it would open an opportunity for contestation. It is closed, maybe not completely, but the signs are there.

EASTERN CAPE VICTORY NO GUARANTEE OF UNIVERSAL SUPPORT

Ramaphosa’s critics say he faced a fierce fight in the Eastern Cape and, even after deploying his ministers who are ANC heavyweights, the Mabuyane group could only muster a 55% victory at the conference.

“They threw in everything they had, including all the might of the Ramaphosa administration and, even then, they only won by a 10% margin,” said a critic, adding that the opposing lobby of Public Works MEC Babalo Madikizela was “unassisted” and still staged a good fight.

It is believed that the ANC heavyweights worked their socks off to turn delegates whose branches and regions had pledged support for Madikizela.

“Some of them were also influenced by provincial dynamics and the same thing will not apply in December,” said a source close to the process.

Presidential and VP aspirants Zweli Mkhize and Paul Mashatile

An ANC insider said that “the notion that the branches that did not back Mabuyane would magically consolidate behind him and Ramaphosa going to the December national conference is nonsensical”.

“There is a short time between now and December. There is no time for Mabuyane to manipulate the profile of current delegates. It is not possible. The assumption that the provincial leaders somehow get to railroad branches in a particular direction is also nonsensical.”

For example, said the insider, in KwaZulu-Natal, the provincial ANC leaders back Ramaphosa, “but they have not been able to influence the regions”.

The Sarah Baartman region in the Eastern Cape – which backed Madikizela – is expected to elect new regional leaders this weekend, and “the outcome would be the first test of whether Mabuyane had the necessary muscle to consolidate total support of the province behind Ramaphosa”.

MKHIZE CONSOLIDATES KWAZULU-NATAL

Also holding an elective conference this weekend is the Musa Dladla region in KwaZulu-Natal, and the branches were widely expected to endorse former health minister Zweli Mkhize for the ANC presidency.

Potential contenders needed at least one province to nominate them for the position, and Mkhize is counting on KwaZulu-Natal to spearhead his campaign.

The idea that Ramaphosa was already winning was superficial, said a Mkhize lobbyist, pointing out that, in 2017, KwaZulu-Natal had more than 900 of the 5 000 voting delegates at the national conference.

“We project that we will have nine out of 11 regions supporting our candidate. Those two regions that are not on our side, Emalahleni and Josia Gumede, only have 54 and 68 branches, respectively. The two regions make up less than 10% of the provincial vote, so we are confident that KwaZulu-Natal will deliver Mkhize,” said the person, albeit cautious of threats that the National Prosecuting Authority could bring criminal charges against him in relation to the controversial Digital Vibes communications contract.

City Press learnt that, in anticipation of the charges against Mkhize, the Musa Dladla regional conference was likely to call for a review of the ANC’s step-aside policy that bars criminally charged candidates from contesting internal elections.

Ramaphosa rivals won the eThekwini regional conference last month and the delegates’ decision to elect corruption-accused former city mayor Zandile Gumede has been described as a statement against the step-aside regime.

Gumede’s co-accused Nomthandazo Shabalala was elected as the regional treasurer.

But the Ramaphosa lobby said they did not see KwaZulu-Natal sponsoring a name to challenge Ramaphosa.

“Whichever way it goes, I do not see KwaZulu-Natal sponsoring another name to contest number one. They have learnt from their mistakes in 2017. They challenged Ramaphosa and their candidate was not elected, and they could not get a candidate elected and they could not even get anyone in the top six.”

In 2017, KwaZulu-Natal had backed Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s slate.

The Emalahleni and Josia Gumede regions are said to be running with the candidacy of Mabuza.

RAMAPHOSA ‘MAY PAY PRICE’ FOR SIDELINING MSIZA

In Limpopo, Ramaphosa got a head start in January when Mathabatha endorsed him. However, the kingmaker in Limpopo was provincial treasurer Danny Msiza, who also had to step aside because of criminal charges related to the now defunct VBS Mutual Bank.

“The recent national executive committee decision that criminally charged members should not accept the nomination and be elected to office destabilised Msiza’s bid to become the provincial secretary, and Ramaphosa may pay the price for it,” said an insider.

But the Ramaphosa camp was confident that “Limpopo made it clear they want a second term, despite those differences around approach to ethical issues and things like the step-aside policy”.

MPUMALANGA UP IN THE AIR

In Mpumalanga, Ramaphosa had bet on Premier Refilwe Mtshweni-Tsipane to win the provincial ANC conference, but Mandla Ndlovu was elected as the new chairperson instead. Ndlovu, who is not hostile towards Ramaphosa, was seen as his key man in the province, but others dispute that his collective supports the president.

The horse that he had bet on could not even make it off the starting blocks. Their line-up did not make the threshold and now they are claiming Ndlovu,” said an ANC insider.

GAUTENG BELIEVES THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE
In February, City Press reported that Gauteng Premier David Makhura had hinted at a cadre forum that Ramaphosa should get a second term, and the branch chairpersons and secretaries in attendance had jeered. However, the lobby pushing for Mashatile to become deputy president was open to endorsing a Ramaphosa candidacy.

A Ramaphosa lobbyist in the province said that they were prepared to support him alone and not the collective that had latched on to him, because “they are holding him back”.“There is no other alternative candidate to Ramaphosa, especially if we want to win the 2024 general elections.“He will win the December conference only because there is no alternative, not because he has consolidated support.”

Two regional conferences in Gauteng – Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg – were this week postponed.

SMALLER PROVINCES SEEM TO LINE UP BEHIND SECOND TERM
The ANC in the Northern Cape under Premier Zamani Saul had also endorsed Ramaphosa and, in the Western Cape, his backers spoke of the “renewal forces” being in charge.

In the Free State, the provincial conference was doubtful, but the ANC had installed a Ramaphosa backer, Mxolisi Dukwana, as an interim leader. In North West, the provincial conference was likely to be postponed again from the end of this month until the end of next month.