ED, Chiwenga heading for an ugly showdown

0Shares

UK-based Zimbabwean lawyer, Brighton Mutebuka, says there is a looming “final showdown” between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and Vice President Constantino Chiwenga over the control of the ruling ZANU PF party and the Zimbabwean government.

Mutebuka, in a post on the social media platform X, has suggested that despite ZANU PF’s denials, there are ongoing power struggles between the two senior political figures.

This comes after President Mnangagwa recently claimed that he is not seeking a third term in office, which Mutebuka believes should not be taken at face value.

The lawyer asserts that Mnangagwa is now racing against time and has to execute a plan to remain in power beyond 2028 within the next 18 months.

The speculation around a power struggle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga has been the subject of much debate within Zimbabwe’s political landscape. He wrote:

ED & Chiwenga’s Final Showdown Edges Closer As Brinksmanship Nears Grand Finale!

It’s the worst-kept secret in town. It’s a poorly scripted show. It’s about to take off.
It could only have been kept in the shadows for so long.
It started with the FAZ-led & ZEC-assisted electoral heist in August 2023.
It progressed via the unleashing of a shameless proxy, Tshabangu & his surrogates in decimating the then-only viable political opposition in the then-Chamisa-led CCC.
Once that mission had been accomplished, the next natural & logical step was always going to be managing the internal mechanics of ZANU PF.
This is the phase that we have now reached – and the most dangerous yet.
As previously opined, ED’s path to retaining power is perilous. This is because, at all material times, he has to show his hand.
It is he who has to officially & publicly seek & get an endorsement to be ZANU PF’s next presidential candidate.
It is he who has to openly command the machinery of the state to overcome the formidable constitutional obstacles in his path.
In all this, Chiwenga is the “insurgent”. He will remain inscrutable. He will play the fool, just like ED did while plotting against Bob – biding his time and perfecting his “art” until the moment is ripe.
ED’s hand is being forced by his shrinking political clock which dictates the necessity of executing key & calculated political steps to beat the deadline imposed by the expiry of his term in 2028.
In actual effect, given where we are now, he has to execute his mission with deadly precision & ruthlessness within the next 18 months or so, if he is to have the chance of seeing it through.
I have always argued that the odds are heavily stacked against him. At the very least, constitutionally at least – even with the benefit of Malaba in his corner – the route to his endgame is highly combustible.
Then there is the added political intrigue that arises from the inevitable & high-octane pitting of wily deep-state actors on either side in dangerous duels in Zimbabwe’s equivalent of ancient Rome’s Colosseum.
The more political scandals tumble out of ED’s political closet – cue the current & previous state capture & corruption scandals – the more ED will be primed to fight to the death given the fear he is likely to have over the potential consequences of a catastrophic loss of power.
The duel pits Alpha male against Alpha male. One thing clear from ED’s Mutare speech is that he did not expressly or officially endorse or identify Chiwenga as his successor – this despite the “blood brothers” narrative they have sought to portray over many years.
I previously commented that there was something churlish about ED’s Chikomba speech – where he did a roll call of his cabinet & asked it to line up & endorse his 3rd term agenda via chanting his slogan in front of Chiwenga – before holding and hoisting Chiwenga’s hand while bizarrely & needlessly introducing him as Zim’s VP – as if such an introduction was necessary or appropriate – either in that moment or in Chikomba of all places.
I consider that roll call to be blood-curdling, reckless, extremely provocative & dangerous to a tee. Brazenly executed in broad daylight in Chiwenga’s home ground, on his own turf, it’s difficult not to interpret it as a crude but powerful attempt at subjugation and projection of untrammelled power.
The stream of choreography we are now witnessing, from General Sanyatwe’s reckless utterances to the cacophony of deafening alarm bells from the Bocha VaPostori Passover charade is part of that act of intimidating all internal opponents in ZANU PF.
There are also attempts at generating massive goodwill & performance legitimacy from the gullible through a sustained flurry/campaign of public works – such as road repairs, new buildings and other “ED Works”, to generate a sense of indispensability or creation of a messianic complex & justify the 2030 Project, as if another ZANU PF candidate can’t continue on the same trajectory.
The more many organs of ZANU PF & state officials join the chorus, the more the 3rd term agenda is presented as a fait accompli – to the likes of Chiwenga, so that they can be psychologically whipped into line to capitulate without any further salvos being fired – thereby achieving another version of a bloodless palace reverse coup!
ED’s Mutare Juice speech’s reference to a party-chosen successor as opposed to a carefully scripted Chiwenga coronation dramatically & powerfully demonstrated the fissures in their claimed close relationship.
It’s a not-so-subtle lightning rod to ED’s Lieutenants and the politically discerning – the equivalent of Prof Moyo’s then explosive BBC Hardtalk interview when he declared that ED’s then elevation to the state Vice Presidency did not mean that he was a shoo-in Bob’s successor.
So we now have our answer to the Mutare Juice speech. ED simply wanted to lure in his ambitious rivals into choppy waters and a false sense of security – while unfurling the old & worn out dictator’s script of pretending to be reluctant & unwilling to stay in power while secretly marshalling their proxies to continue pushing their naked political ambition from behind the scenes!
In scenes akin to a deadly game of Russian Roulette, ED has effectively raised the stakes & marked his territory – daring Chiwenga to enter the dungeon & settle their score. At some point, the latter will have to take the plunge, which is when it will become hair raising & cause teeth to gnash! If it previously never was, it’s now immediately clear that the much-vaunted Coup Protocol either never existed or was never taken seriously by ED.

Conclusion

ED is going nowhere. Battle lines are now drawn everywhere. In SADC, in ZANU PF and all state institutions. The unfinished business of November 2017 has returned to haunt Zimbabwe.

The showdown is looming. It’s how ED’s political journey was always going to unfold. He was always incapable of giving up power voluntarily.

Had his Mutare speech been sincere, we would have seen a tectonic shift in Zim’s political terrain through the loosening of his grip over party & state affairs, genuine delegation of power/decentralisation and a lowering of the political temperature.

Instead, we have seen the exact opposite! You would think it was ED’s first term. There are so many political scandals engulfing ED as to disincentivise him from vacating the seat of power. One gets the impression that he is committed to rolling the political dice to the bitter end!

Virtually every current political event in Zim seems to be attributable to the intractable succession saga. From mysterious arsons to senseless arrests of political opponents & exceptionally cruel & prolonged denial of bail even to the disabled and infants – such jarring heartlessness & callousness!

We are also increasingly seeing the unusual spectacle of children of high-profile regime officials getting arrested – which heightens the political intrigue involved!

It’s a bumpy road ahead, everyone needs to buckle up & fasten their seatbelts, especially the leading protagonists & those around them!