Army roadblock for presidential term extension

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President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s quest to extend his term beyond the constitutional limit in 2028 is likely to face resistance, as the military, which is the traditional political power broker in Zimbabwe is opposed such moves, reported The NewsHawks.

While Mnangagwa has repeatedly declared that he is a constitutionalist and will not seek an extension beyond 2028, critics remain skeptical of his intentions.

The NewsHawks has reported that military sources indicate Mnangagwa will be prevented from pursuing any constitutional changes aimed at prolonging his presidency, despite demands from his party, ZANU PF.

The report suggests that the military will leverage its institutional and hard power to thwart any attempts at altering the succession process. The NewsHawks quoted a military source on Friday as saying:

The army is clear on this issue. Very very clear. The President has to serve his constitutional second term and retire in 2028.

Let’s not forget that he was not supposed to run for a second term in the first place from the military perspective.

Although publicly he seems to be in agreement that he will retire in 2028, in political circles he is speaking a different language and giving different signals, clandestinely encouraging his core supporters to push for a constitutional amendment for him to stay on until 2030.

That has no takers in the security forces beyond a few individuals who agree with that for self-interest. Even among the public, it is not a popular proposal.

A recent report by the local think tank Zimbabwe Democracy Institute says the military will not remain a passive observer in the processes of selecting a new leader within ZANU PF and, ultimately, in the country. Reads part of the report:

It is abundantly clear that the military has played a decisive role in Zimbabwean politics. As ZANU PF continues to grapple with a colossal succession battle, the role of the military in intra-party politics will become apparent in the decisive phase, although at this moment that role has not been shown overtly.

Due to the politico-military nexus, the military will not be an innocent bystander in the processes to select a new leader in ZANU PF and ultimately of the Republic.

It is highly likely that, as the military has done before, it will exercise veto power in the election or selection of the ZANU PF leadership.

According to the military, the office of the head of state is a straitjacket whose incumbent must meet certain attributes, particularly possessing military credentials.

The same credentials can be said to also apply to the office of ZANU PF first secretary. Thus, the successor to President Mnangagwa is likely to be a military man, not a civilian politician.

Whether it will be Vice-President Chiwenga or not is a subject of further inquiry, but the likelihood of a military man or military-backed candidate is inevitable and inescapable.

–Pindula