Who is winning between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga?

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Hopewell Chin’ono

The fired commander of Zimbabwe’s National Army (ground forces), Lieutenant-General Anselem Nhamo Sanyatwe, has taken an oath of office as Zimbabwe’s new Sport, Recreation, Arts and Culture Minister.

A few months ago, I mentioned on this page that Emmerson Mnangagwa had politically outmanoeuvred his vice president, Retired General Constantino Chiwenga.

The 2024 ZANU PF Bulawayo conference dented Chiwenga’s presidential ambitions when a party resolution stating that ZANUPF wanted Mnangagwa to stay in power until 2030 was passed with fanfare. That 2030 party endorsement complicated Chiwenga’s fate politically.

I also mentioned that the only realistic avenue left for Chiwenga to become president was a military coup using, in particular, his trusted right-hand man, General Sanyatwe, who was the commander of the Zimbabwe National Army until two days ago. New members who wish to receive news updates from Ignite Media Zimbabwe should WhatsApp ‘join’ to 071 9999 012.

That avenue is now closed too, since General Sanyatwe is now Zimbabwe’s sports minister.

Zimbabwe’s armed forces are commanded by Mnangagwa’s clansman, General P.V. Sibanda, who does not have a good relationship with Chiwenga.

The CIO is run by Dr Fulton Mangwanya, another close lieutenant of Mnangagwa, who was once officer in charge of the CIO in Mnangagwa’s hometown of Kwekwe. Over the years, Mnangagwa has also appointed loyal colonels and generals in the army, and many who were loyal to Chiwenga were either retired or died since the 2017 military coup.

So, Mnangagwa is now fully in charge of the Joint Operations Command (JOC) after taking control of the police too, where he put his homeboy, Stephen Mutamba.

Against this backdrop, the only two options left now for Chiwenga are for him to take advantage of disgruntled rank-and-file soldiers or lower-ranking commanders who could stage a traditional military coup to install him, although this will be an uphill task for a retired general who no longer commands anything in the military.

I say so because in Africa many coups are usually carried out by lower- to middle-ranking soldiers, which is why their success rate is mixed, as opposed to those led by generals, which tend to succeed, according to Zimbabwean-born University of Oxford military historian, Prof Miles Tendi, in his latest book titled The Overthrow of Robert Mugabe: Gender, Coups, and Diplomats.

The second option left for General Chiwenga is to be propelled by an uprising of citizens, which could create a conducive environment for the removal of Mnangagwa.

However, this would require citizen mobilisation, as happened in 2017 when the traditional opposition, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, put its supporters in the streets.

Today, however, there is no opposition with similar capacity, and there are no competent opposition leaders with the fearlessness, conviction, and commitment of Morgan Tsvangirai to go against the grain.

General Chiwenga has another fight on his hands as Mnangagwa and his team are now whispering about getting rid of him altogether after incrementally weakening him using a cartel of instruments that include making his appointment as VP reliant on Mnangagwa’s pleasure and not guaranteed by the constitution, and also the removal of his loyalists in the army and government.

Chiwenga has himself to blame for this because he sat quietly as Mnangagwa removed the running mate constitutional clause, which was supposed to kick in from 2023.

The running mate clause was a constitutional provision that required presidential candidates to choose a running mate before an election, like the system in the United States. This clause was introduced in the 2013 Constitution under Section 92. It meant Mnangagwa could not fire Chiwenga, as they would have been elected jointly.

That is the clause that saved former Malawian President Joyce Banda from being fired after she fell out with her former boss, the late President Bingu wa Mutharika.

While a coup remains a remote option, it is an uphill task, not least because it has to be accepted by regional leaders unless the idea is to be another Sahel state like Mali, Niger, or Burkina Faso—something that is less likely to happen in SADC, as it would create a pariah state unless the coup is accepted by SADC and the African Union.

The 2017 military coup was partly accepted internationally because Mnangagwa’s backroom team in the corporate world extensively marketed it openly to the international community, particularly South Africa, Britain, and China. I see no such groundwork by Chiwenga’s team.

Citizens went into the streets in 2017 because their security was guaranteed by the military, and their involvement was endorsed by the main opposition, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, with Nelson Chamisa as the emissary between the two camps.

Without such a security guarantee and endorsement by the opposition, a popular uprising will be a flop.

Meanwhile, unlike Chiwenga, Mnangagwa is not hesitant to take unpopular and even dangerous decisions bordering on recklessness for some like firing General Sanyatwe and removing the running mate clause. He also has loads of money that he is using to purchase favours.

In this regard, if Mnangagwa used half his power-retention skills to fix the Zimbabwean economy, Zimbabwe would be an upper-middle-class country, but sadly, he focuses more on three things: power retention, looting, and plunder.

If Monday comes and the talked-about uprising does not happen, Chiwenga and his supporters in ZANUPF will become sitting ducks, some coild say they will be finished except for a miracle.

Mnangagwa has played the long game to his maximum advantage like a master chess player, and so far he is winning. The outcome of Monday’s planned uprising will determine Chiwenga’s prospects.

Emmerson Mnangagwa is 86 years old, although on paper he is said to be 82. In my view, the 2030 agenda is not about him getting there but about stopping Chiwenga and anointing his chosen successor while he is still in control. Those pushing his 2030 agenda are hoping to be that chosen successor. New members who wish to receive news updates from Ignite Media Zimbabwe should WhatsApp ‘join’ to 071 9999 012. The tragic demise of Zimbabwe’s opposition, driven by a combination of Mnangagwa’s abuse of state institutions, political incompetence, selling-out and selfishness, has left Zimbabwean citizens with no option but to expect change from within ZANUPF.

So, it doesn’t mean those supporting the efforts of those close to Chiwenga are now pro-ZANUPF, it simply means the citizenry is desperate for change, any change.

A very sad reality, but as they say, Father Time and Mother Nature are undefeated.